Risk and Forecasting Program
This course is designed for professionals who want to improve predictability and risk management in their projects. The training teaches how to use flow metrics, Monte Carlo simulation and statistical methods to make reliable forecasts and identify associated risks. Ideal for those who want to improve the efficiency and accuracy of their forecasts using practical tools and data analysis. The use of a laptop with spreadsheet software, preferably Microsoft Excel, is required.
1. Introduction to Predictability and Data Collection
- What is Predictability?
- What data should we collect?
- Forecasts for single items using cycle time
- Traditional Forecasting Techniques and Why They Fail
2. Lead Time and Risk Analysis
- Lead Time Distribution Analysis and its Relationship with Risks
- Quantifying single-item forecast risk (percentiles and SLAs)
- Improved forecasts for single items
3. Multi-Item Forecasting and Monte Carlo Simulation
- What is Throughput and Why is it Important?
- Introduction to Monte Carlo Statistical Sampling and Simulation Methods
- How to answer “How many items can be delivered in 'X' days?”
- Quantifying multi-item forecast risk
- Improved predictions for multiple items
4. Quantifiable Risk Management
- Understanding risk in developing accurate forecasts
- Risk quantification in analysis charts
- Using changing scenarios to develop an overall risk profile
5. Practical Application and Advanced Forecasting Techniques
- How to immediately apply these techniques to your current project or process
- Pull System Policies and Forecasting
- Deepening Little's Law
- Shortest work weighted first
- Monte Carlo Simulation and Cost of Delay
- Effective selection and use of work system data
Who is it for?
- Project Managers
- Agile Coaches
- scrum masters
- Product Owners
- Business Analysts
- Risk Management Specialists
- Anyone involved in the planning and execution of complex projects
